Filling Cheney Lake - does the outlook suggest it might happen

We've done so many stories on Cheney Lake lately that it feels like old news when we cover it from a different angle. In recent days, we've been showing how the water level is the lowest since 2013. Information courtesy of NWS Wichita:

The lake level has been lower, which had me thinking that if the lake was over 8 feet down in 2013, what did it take to bring it back to a "normal" level? The measurement was in February of 2013, but the rains didn't start happening (on a larger scale) until late in the summer. In August of that year, heavy rains impacted south central Kansas and locations around Cheney had 10". That helped to bring the lake back up, but what helped even more was big rain that fell in June 2014. 

Two months of big rains! The entire Cheney basin was inundated with 8-10" during the June 2014 rainy spell, so plenty of that water was able to flow into the lake bringing it back above a normal level. When you think about how much water it would take to fill it up, easily it would be 8-10 inches and with that kind of rainfall, some of you will feel like we are floating away.

I started thinking maybe all of that rain came in an El Nino year, which tends to favor better moisture for Kansas. What I found out is that in 2013 and 2014, we were in a "neutral" phase - meaning not La Nina or El Nino. Fighting back against a falling lake level would be an easier battle if we were in an El Nino or a "neutral" stage, but that is definitely not the case moving forward. 

We are fast approaching a La Nina phase where the water near the equator in the Pacific is cooler than average. See the map for yourself:

That has me concerned we won't put significant water IN Cheney Lake for quite some time because the tendency is for drier conditions in La Nina setups. And new information coming in during the last few weeks suggests this phenomenon will hold on until maybe summer of 2025 before it weakens considerably.

If you believe the seasonal models, the three-month period of August, September, and October will be (as a whole), drier than normal. This doesn't mean we won't get any rain at all, but it's not overly encouraging when you are trying to get some decent runoff to fill ponds and lakes. 

The latest drought map that came out on July 11th has three very dry pockets in Kansas. South central, central, and a small part of southwest Kansas continue in "severe" drought. 

Thanks for reading!