The top image is La Nina with the bottom one showing the El Nino example:
We have just emerged from a short-term El Nino (lasted only about a year). Prior to that, we had a 3 year La Nina that ended in early 2023.
Notice the colder water that is just below the surface - upwelling continues and there is a better than 70% chance that by late fall, we will be in a La Nina. As that colder water surfaces, easterly winds will push some of it toward the central Pacific Ocean.
What has changed recently is that the onset of La Nina is taking longer than earlier thought. And there's even some question as to how strong it will get before it starts dissipating again in early 2025. Take a look at the series of images below, starting with October and ending in February. You'll see the gradual progression of the colder water (blue colors) migrating from east to west. We should reach La Nina status by the end of the year, but when you look at February, already the blue is fading off the map. That would indicate a warming of the water in that region.
October:
November:
December:
February:
What generally happens in a La Nina winter for Kansas? Generally, they tend to favor slightly colder weather overall, but of course there are exceptions. The winter of 1999/2000 had a strong La Nina and ended up warmer than average. The winter of 2011/12 was warmer than average, and it was a moderate La Nina. There is a tendency for the northern jet to be stronger (ushering in the colder blasts), while most of the better moisture gets shunted off to the east of Kansas. It doesn't mean the entire winter is dry and snow-free, but I think it's a very, very low chance of much drought easing this winter given the oncoming La Nina setup.
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