January outlook - Arctic air returns

I've heard several people talk about the lack of cold in December and how it never really felt like Christmas. We've yet to have Arctic air and most are still waiting on the first measurable snow. The lack of snow isn't anything new for December. After all, some years we are waiting until February or March. 

The month of December winds up much warmer than average from the central Plains westward:

January thoughts:

It continues to look like the cold will start cutting loose and moving south. The question is will Kansas be on the western fringe of the Arctic air or in the middle of it? The first week shows signs of being somewhat "near" normal with highs a mix of 30s and 40s. 

I do think heading toward mid-January, odds are better for our first batch of Arctic air to move south into the Plains. This may hit around the 10th of January and go deep into the South, with most areas east of the Rockies experiencing the coldest air.

The entire month isn't cold though, as late January may have some potential warming once again. That's what you see below.

As far as precipitation goes, January doesn't look like it will be a wet month, but much of the state should get some of its first snows of winter. I'd anticipate near or below average moisture through February 1st. 

January average look like this:

Remember one of the first snow storms in 2024? This system dumped heavy snow on a good portion of Kansas and combined with strong north winds to create blizzard conditions. It shut down many roads especially across western Kansas. Some of the highest totals came out of central Kansas. 

Cold & snow still nowhere to be found

The official first day of winter is fast approaching and with the exception of a couple of decent winter storms, the Plains have been pretty much snow-free. The heavy wet snow that fell on November 8/9 mostly covered Colorado with areas on the High Plains receiving 10-20"+

Now in mid-December, look at how much of the US has no snow on the ground at all (less than 20%), but that's not really a total surprise. Last year at this time, only 16% of the country had snow cover. 

3rd full week of December: Temperatures

It still looks milder overall, meaning highs mainly in the 50s with lows in the 20s. This doesn't mean we could have some snow (especially if it comes overnight), but it wouldn't likely stay for long.

Christmas week:

This is why we have been saying for the past two weeks, no white Christmas. It's just too warm! And there's plenty to go around this year. Even the Dakota are likely to be unseasonably warm. I wouldn't be surprised if we are close to 60° on Christmas Day. This will be a gift for some of you.

Precipitation:

Odds don't appear to be in our favor for much moisture between now and late December. There are smaller systems approaching from the West, but if they are able to generate some rainfall, it will more than likely end up south or east of Kansas. 

Will January turn cold? We mentioned this in our winter forecast that January and February have some strong signals of near or colder than average weather. It still looks like that will happen, but the coldest air may not be at the beginning of January - it may come mid/late month. Northwest wind pattern aloft could put much of the central and northern US in much colder weather. 

Winter forecast 2024-25

It might be the least favorite season for many of you, but we know winter is coming and each year, we put together some thoughts about what we are seeing for the months ahead. Each member of Storm Team 12 has made a forecast for snowfall (from first flake to last) - including May (but hers is more for entertainment)

What is "average" snowfall for Kansas? You might be surprised at how much it varies around the state:

• South central: 12.7"
• Dodge City: 19.1"
• Goodland: 30"
• Concordia: 19.3"

The most interesting thing to me is how wet the month of November was for the central US and Kansas, more specifically. Right after Halloween, we had a surplus of rain that arrived with three back-to-back large scale systems that came from the Southwest. The maps below show the observed amounts for Kansas and the region.

We had the wettest November on record even before getting 2/3 of the way through the month. It's entirely possible that kind of setup will show up again before spring arrives, but will it be more heavy rainfall or heavy snow?

You can also bet a northwest wind pattern aloft (which is what Kansas has been in for late November and early December) will result in some big Arctic blasts for January and February. I'm not convinced the remainder of December will have much for prolonged cold (basically it's a few days of it and then it warms up again). But with a weak La Nina influencing the winter pattern, a typical northwest flow of the jet stream is common. It's likely going to result in some really cold air for the eastern half of the country. 

Another way to unlock some clues for the upcoming season is looking at ocean temperatures. Some of the key regions seem to be similar to 2013, but one area that is drastically different is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't know how a VERY warm Gulf impacts our winter snow and rain, but this will be something to watch. Does the warm water keep us from getting more snow? Does this lead to a very wet winter or are the three months ahead dry? We will all know soon enough.

I will say that weak La Nina patterns, by themselves, don't often yield big snows for Kansas. More than 85% of the years we looked at with La Nina, snowfall tends to be below average. And some of those years had REALLY wet fall seasons too (take 1985 for example - Over 13" of rain in the fall, and then the winter had 10.5" of snow)

I love the challenge that comes with trying to understand what the upcoming season has in store. We have so many variables to consider, and every meteorologist will try to find a single "smoking gun" for a nod to what the season has in store, but that just doesn't exist. We will continue to look at what we have and give you the earliest "heads up" when we see something coming in that might be disruptive. In the meantime, it's very quiet and will be for awhile.

Thanks for reading!