What is "average" snowfall for Kansas? You might be surprised at how much it varies around the state:
- South central: 12.7"
- Dodge City: 19.1"
- Goodland: 30"
- Concordia: 19.3"
The most interesting thing to me is how wet the month of November was for the central US and Kansas, more specifically. Right after Halloween, we had a surplus of rain that arrived with three back-to-back large scale systems that came from the Southwest. The maps below show the observed amounts for Kansas and the region.
We had the wettest November on record even before getting 2/3 of the way through the month. It's entirely possible that kind of setup will show up again before spring arrives, but will it be more heavy rainfall or heavy snow?
You can also bet a northwest wind pattern aloft (which is what Kansas has been in for late November and early December) will result in some big Arctic blasts for January and February. I'm not convinced the remainder of December will have much for prolonged cold (basically it's a few days of it and then it warms up again). But with a weak La Nina influencing the winter pattern, a typical northwest flow of the jet stream is common. It's likely going to result in some really cold air for the eastern half of the country.
Another way to unlock some clues for the upcoming season is looking at ocean temperatures. Some of the key regions seem to be similar to 2013, but one area that is drastically different is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't know how a VERY warm Gulf impacts our winter snow and rain, but this will be something to watch. Does the warm water keep us from getting more snow? Does this lead to a very wet winter or are the three months ahead dry? We will all know soon enough.
I will say that weak La Nina patterns, by themselves, don't often yield big snows for Kansas. More than 85% of the years we looked at with La Nina, snowfall tends to be below average. And some of those years had REALLY wet fall seasons too (take 1985 for example - Over 13" of rain in the fall, and then the winter had 10.5" of snow)
I love the challenge that comes with trying to understand what the upcoming season has in store. We have so many variables to consider, and every meteorologist will try to find a single "smoking gun" for a nod to what the season has in store, but that just doesn't exist. We will continue to look at what we have and give you the earliest "heads up" when we see something coming in that might be disruptive. In the meantime, it's very quiet and will be for awhile.
Thanks for reading!
