A July heat wave soon?

Summer is in full swing, and we've already watched one big heat wave bake the eastern half of the country. Where will that setup next? Is it unusual that we haven't had 100° in some areas yet?

The latest triple digit tally as of the end of June:

It's NOT unusual to hit the beginning of July and still be waiting on the first 100 of the year. After all, when you look back at the last 10 years, some of the first triple digit temperatures have arrived in mid-late July. Consider this:

• Goodland - July 24 (2023)
• Wichita, Salina & Dodge City - July 17 (2019)

However, average first 100s are usually in June.

• Salina - June 26
• Dodge City - June 27
• Goodland - June 29
• Wichita - July 3

Is a major heat wave about to set in? 

The short answer is no! I don't see anything long term in July that looks alarming for a long, drawn-out heat wave (where highs would hit 100 for a week or more). There's something very strange going on for the beginning of July where the "heat dome" is very weak. While that may strengthen by mid-late July, I don't think it will end up over Kansas for an extended period of time. 

Here's what happens in early July:

The high pressure is the epicenter of the heat and in late June it moved over Kentucky and Tennessee, putting the eastern 1/3 of the country in some record temperatures. Now, it's going to be very weak and over the Gulf. That opens the door for Kansas to remain near normal on the highs (low 90s) and potentially dealing with more scattered storms after the 4th of July.

The heat ridge will make a quick pass near Kansas before it sets up in Utah and Nevada for mid-July. We could get into some of our hottest weather of the summer about that time (highs mid-upper 90s).

If I look deeper into July, it shows signs of weakening and potentially moving even farther west. That means another chance to escape a long spell of 100s.

All of this to say that July might not be that bad when it comes to just how hot it COULD be. We will more than likely take our turn with highs hitting 100, but don't expect it to remain there for days and weeks on end. Heat waves should be extremely short this summer. 

As far as rain goes in July, don't expect it to be a very wet month. Any storms are likely going to be spotty, with much of Kansas drier than normal for July.

Here are the July averages if you're interested:

Thanks for reading!