Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Is this rainy pattern going to break?

I'm trying to get some information out to (especially to the farmers) about what we are seeing through the rest of September. This rainy weather is creating concern for the fall crops that have looked so good with timely rains and cooler than normal weather. While the weather has been cooperative, some things need to change, or the good-looking crops could start suffering. 

Bottom line - It's going to be a struggle finding long stretches of dry weather through the remainder of this month. It appears that through the remainder of September, low pressure is favored over the western US, and those systems will keep the central Plains in the running for more rounds of rain/storms.

I'm showing the raw data here, and then I'll wrap it up with the rainfall (compared to average) maps right after that. 

Going into September (week two): Another upper low will make its way into the Rockies, which will bring more unsettled weather to the region. Remember, the areas that are favored for rainy/stormy weather are to the right of the big "L" on the maps below. That's where air rises and tends to lead to precipitation.


September (week three): It's very possible a system from the Pacific Northwest will cut across the Rockies and Plains states yet again increasing the odds for more rain/storms.


End of September: It may be weaker, but low pressure continues to show potential near and just west of Kansas. That could keep at least scattered rain/thunder nearby for late in the month.


In summary, there's reason to believe that the remainder of this month could be difficult to squeeze in much more than 5-7 days of dry weather at a time. I know that's concerning where the fall harvest is about to get started, and then some are concerned about getting next years wheat crop planted. This could be one of those years where everything is going to drag out longer than anyone wants to. Areas that need more rain, this is good news. 



I will say that peeking into early October, high pressure may return to the Plains and the Rockies, which would lead to drier weather. However, it may also turn cooler than average, which would take longer to dry things out if we still have a bunch of muddy fields and standing water. Stay tuned.

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