Winter forecast 2025-26

Whether you like the season or not, winter weather is always a big point of discussion this time of year. Two questions that come up routinely in conversation are "how bad is the winter going to be", or "how much snow are we going to get". It seems like we start getting these questions around state fair time onward. 

These long-range forecasts are difficult, and there's a great deal of analyzing and thought put into what we release, but at the end of the day, nobody has the answers. Still, we do what we can so you have an understanding of what might be ahead in the coming months. 

❄Last Winter:

It was a snowy one for south central Kansas, but other areas of the state just had "average" snow. Most of it didn't arrive until January and February, with almost 0 snow reported in December 2024.

❄This Winter:

It's highly possible the main snow tracks this winter will be farther north (through Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, and the upper Midwest), so although there are some similarities to the setup from last winter, parts of the state will not be as snowy this winter (like Wichita). However, northern Kansas could be snowier this winter compared to last.

Two interesting factors: La Nina in the Pacific (south of Hawaii) and a very warm Gulf of Alaska. This was the case last winter too, but the water off the coast of Alaska is just a bit warmer. I'm starting to think this will favor high pressure in that region, which in turn will force more Arctic air to slide east of the Rockies (pushing down into the US). This could be a routine occurrence throughout the winter.

The La Nina is essentially of the same strength and magnitude as it was last winter.

La Nina also favors colder than average weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Kansas will be on the western fringe of most of it, but there will be some stretches ahead where it stays quite cold for several consecutive days (but not likely weeks on end).

We should have a couple of wet storms coming out of the Southwest between now and March, but when they arrive, it may not be cold enough for snow. It's entirely possible that we'll have a wet winter overall, but it won't all be snow and it may come with just a few stronger low pressure systems.

Every year, each member of the weather team submits a snow prediction. Most of us might have some simple methodology in how we arrive at our numbers, but in the end, it is a forecast and not a guarantee. We do the best we can with what we have and hope that it is helpful in some fashion. And in case you're wondering, there's no prize awarded to the team member who gets closest 😊