Winter fades very fast - some chilly days still to come

I thought mid-late February would have another shot of some Arctic air, but that expectation has faded given the breakdown of the Polar Vortex and general trend toward a positive Arctic Oscillation (the two go hand-in-hand). Recall that the Polar Vortex, when it's strong, can send an overwhelming amount of cold air south across areas east of the Rockies. It happened in late January, but since then it has weakened and shifted back northeast.

I know we have some warm winters from time to time, but this one is probably one of the strangest in recent memory. Since December 1st (or the start of meteorological winter), we've had almost 10 days where some place in Kansas has recorded a record high, and more to be added soon. December had 4 days with record highs, January with 2, and we'll soon be adding to February's count.

Third week of February (16-22):

A dominant pattern with low pressure across the West will favor warmer weather throughout the central Plains on to the east. Take note of the VERY cold air across western Canada. That was originally thought to move south and get into the central Plains, but I'm not expecting that to happen now. We may get some of that chillier air, but not the core of it. 

February 23-March 2:

Definitely cooler to end February and start March, but it's very unlikely to be bitterly cold. Expect most highs to be in the 40s and 50s. And precipitation throughout this period will likely be somewhat scarce, considering upper level winds will be back to the west/northwest (traditionally a drier setup)

March as a whole: More than likely it will be near or slightly warmer than average

Precipitation: near to slightly wetter across the central Plains. 

• Western Kansas average rainfall in March is about 1-1.50"
• Central/South Central Kansas average March rain is 2-2.50"

The overall setup may be something that resembles what happened in December where the northern Plains and upper Midwest had more active weather. That's fitting of a weak La Nina influence, but as we mentioned last time, La Nina has all but faded at this time.