Remain hopeful looking ahead - ENSO update

It's not exactly unfamiliar territory for anybody in Kansas these days. Spreading drought, missed opportunities on rain, and everything seems to go around us. We are back in that all-to-familiar pattern where we just can't seem to buy a healthy rain. I'm not a wheat expert, but after some recent trips across the state, this year's crop is very short and likely moisture starved, so whatever rain we do get will be too late for that, I'm sure. 

Backing up the concerns for rain - parts of the state have had only 5-10% normal moisture over the past 60 days:

There's reason to be hopeful looking forward. First, let's address the El Nino because the water temperatures have just gone positive in the critical area that is monitored (along the equator and south of Hawaii). The average temperature has just gone to .1°C above average. (Below is the map showing the water temperatures compared to average). You may be noticing the extremely warm water off the California coast, but that's not the area monitored for El Nino (that water is related to something different)

Look where we will be in 60-90 days:

This could easily become a strong El Nino by late summer. Most of the time, when we move into an El Nino, odds increase for Kansas to get better rainfall. It doesn't always happen that way, but you will find more cases of wetter stretches of weather in El Nino as compared to its counterpart, La Nina. And although not shown here, temperatures tend to be near or slightly cooler for the Plains states. There are multiple cases of that happening during these kinds of setups. 

I still have concerns that the next 30 days - through mid/late May, will still wind up drier than average on a large scale. However, more areas of the state SHOULD get rain compared to what has happened so far. I can't make any promises on how much, but the weather patterns we are looking at (at least for early May) should be more helpful. 

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 3:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 10:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through mid May:

Remember, this doesn't guarantee that all areas of the state will be in better shape (compared to the previous few months), but they are signs of a shifting trend as the persistent track of low pressure off the West coast continues. That may end by the middle of May, so let's watch for that. Some of these systems may wobble around for a few days, creating the unsettled weather and leading to cooler temperatures. 

Summer Rains?

If we extend the maps out to summer (and I know some of you won't believe it until you see it), there's an increasing chance we'll have slightly wetter than average weather across the middle of the country. Will this come in June, July, or August? That's a more difficult prediction to make right now, but I'd be leaning toward more rain later in the summer as the El Nino continues to strengthen and influence the overall pattern. 

One more note about the El Nino/La Nina patterns. Take a look at the graph below. 

You'll see how we cycle back and forth between the two phenomena (where the line goes up, it is El Nino and when it dips toward the bottom of the graph, it's La Nina). It's not uncommon to be in cycles where La Nina is favored more frequently (that's where we are now), but there are cycles where El Nino is more common. It's early to say how long the incoming El Nino will last, but it should continue through at least the first part of winter before weakening - according to most models.