Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead.