October outlook

We are heading into October and the weather pattern is very dry & in my opinion - boring. That's not something we say very often about Kansas weather, but since the big storm at the beginning of September that produced rain (and some snow in the northwest), there just hasn't been much taking place in the Plains. 

 

October starts off cooler - Temperatures are going to be near to slightly below average to kick off the new month. However, it is NOT going to stay that way as you'll see in a second.

 

October 12-19 - Warmth from the west is going to spread into the central Plains AGAIN. It wouldn't be a total surprise if we talk record warmth again for a day or two during this particular week. Some areas might be 10-15 above normal.

 

Late October - Temperatures cool down again (by then, normal highs will be down into the 60s). I don't foresee anything really crazy, but I think the second half of the month will be cooling down quite a bit and we may end up with highs in the 50s and 60s. 

 

October Precipitation: I see the month (as a whole) being drier than normal. Considering we will go all the way through the first half of the month with virtually nothing for moisture, it will be a huge task to try and erase the deficits in the last 8-10 days of the month. However, that is the particular time frame where we will have our best chances at rain.

 

What else to look for in October?

Meteor Shower

We will have a meteor shower peaking on October 20-21... the Orionids. At the peak, you might be able to see about 20 per hour. 

Blue Moon

Happening on Halloween, it is the second full month in a single month. It will also be a Micro Full Moon because in its orbit, the moon will be at its farthest point from Earth. It might look a little less bright, but it will be hard to tell much of a difference compared to a regular full moon. 

We are waiting... and waiting...

Boring weather in Kansas is usually a rarity, but lately, it just hasn't been that exciting around here. Last week, we dealt with a blocking pattern that lead to several days of "no change" in the weather. This week, the blocking pattern is gone, but the tropical system Beta trapped all of the moisture near the Gulf coast and prevented us from getting any rain.

Temperatures WILL be changing. It looks hot to wrap up the week and our first weekend in fall will feel a tad more like summer. Much of the central and northern Plains will be above average (with normal highs in the upper 70s)

Next week temperatures (AFTER Monday) will look like this (normal goes to 78/79):

This kind of pattern (where upper level winds come from the northwest) shuts down the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. So the only substantial rain to speak of will be up around the Great Lakes. 

How soon will this dry pattern change? At this time, it probably won't happen until mid October. That's when the upper level winds may begin turning back to the west or southwest, but longer range models have REALLY struggled lately with the cool spells and rain chances (down the stretch), so stay tuned.

This year has been really strange. Lately, we've had a ton of smoke coming across our skies and there have been more than enough tropical systems too. Its been a clash of storms and smoke (as indicated by this satellite image from the past few weeks). 

Tropical systems have been wrapping in smoke from thousands of miles away and carrying it farther north and east. Smoke hasn't necessarily made the tropical storms stronger or weaker, but it sure does make for some interesting pictures from space (and on the ground as evidenced by the weird looking sunrise and sunsets from the past week)

How much longer with the smoke?

The haze over the Plains Thursday was pretty incredible and it will likely be something we are noticing all the way through the weekend. I don't ever remember a time when so much smoke traveled so far and inundated much of the country. Normally in Kansas, if we get smoke from western wildfires, it is around for a day and then passes. However, like everything else in 2020, this year is quite different with so many millions of acres burned. And due to the extreme heat and magnitude of the fires, the smoke has pushed almost into the stratosphere (the next layer of atmosphere above us) - roughly 12-15km in altitude.

How far has the smoke traveled?

This image shows the smoke has traveled across the Atlantic and reached Greenland, Iceland, and even to some degree, Europe.

Friday afternoon - smoke continues to filter down across the Rockies

Saturday afternoon - more smoke in many different areas

Sunday afternoon - it is still hanging around

We think the air quality will improve early next week when most of this gets pushed on to the southeast. And the Pacific Northwest should be getting some rain today (Friday) and again Saturday.

We will likely exhaust the list of names for tropical systems with Wilfred - expect to organize in the Gulf into the weekend.

This storm will likely hang out over the Gulf for many days to come and may not come on shore until the middle of next week. It is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend as it meanders over the warm water. How strong the storm may get isn't clear yet because we don't know how long it will remain over the Gulf. The storm will likely wrap the moisture up so well that any system tracking through Kansas (which won't be many) will have almost zero moisture to work with. Our forecast looks pretty dry into October. 

Have a great weekend.