Early March outlook

Meteorological spring begins on March 1st. If you needed a pick-me-up this week, maybe that will do it. Normal highs at the beginning of March are in the low to mid 50s and in just over a week, our sunset will be happening at 7:30 in the evening. I wanted to shed some light on what might be ahead in March.

Kansas will likely see cooler than normal weather for March. Why?

Two factors to consider: Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. When they go negative (and that's where we are now), we typically see March temperatures look like this:

Precipitation:

I hope I'm completely wrong, but March still looks dry for much of the state. Here's a snapshot of some of the data we are looking at in the storm center. The first half of March does not look promising for rain. Best chances for moisture continue to be across the east. If the models are correct, far eastern Kansas could get .50-1", but farther west, it drops very, very quickly.

Rainfall Today (Tuesday):

There is a chance for some rain in the eastern 1/3 of Kansas. It won't be much, but some thunder is possible and when it's over, amounts will likely end up between a Trace and .25". Most are going to end up well under .25".