Severe weather potential - what to expect

It's the end of April and we are heading for our first weekend of the month that looks good for outdoor stuff. It's unfortunate that through the stormy April weather (that ironically, has mostly happened on the weekends) we haven't been able to push the drought back. The latest map came out yesterday and it basically looks like the previous weeks.

This weekend:

The areas to watch this weekend will be west of a Hays to Dodge City line. The atmosphere will be capable of some very (and I mean one here, one there kind of setup) spotty storms. Sunday evening has the best chance of a few storms developing in far western Kansas.

• If a storm develops, some small hail and gusty winds are possible
• Any storm that might develop should dissipate within a few hours of sunset
• Storms that develop will move east/southeast

Next week:

PLEASE PLEASE be careful about what you read and share on Facebook and Twitter. Next week is not looking to be an outbreak of tornadoes. The setup looks favorable for severe storms, most of which will produce hail, wind, heavy rains, and some tornadoes are possible. Because the season has been so slow to start, it's easy to get excited/anxious and jump the gun on the first setup.

Tuesday and Wednesday have the highest chances for severe storms. This is what I see in the data right now:

• Storms will form late afternoon and into the evening on a slow moving front
• Large hail and strong winds look to be the biggest threats
• Storms are likely to move east/northeast on Tuesday, then mainly east Wednesday
• Heavy rainfall is expected, but looking to mainly be along and east of the Flint Hills

Again, some of the finer details are hard to pin down several days out. But most of the information I'm looking at doesn't point toward a huge tornado outbreak.