Thursday, May 2, 2019

May outlook - Are you ready for this?

It's hard to believe that May is here and it's the peak of severe weather season (typically) during this month. Some of the most destructive tornadoes have happened in May and we are looking back on 20 years since the Haysville tornado happened back in 1999 (May 3rd).

So this is only fitting that we are talking about more active weather heading into our first full week of May. There could be several days next week where storms will be tracking through this area.

First, here's the setup for the first week of May:

A slow moving low pressure will be established over southern California. This will put Kansas in a spot to have a front stalling in the area (exactly where isn't very clear right now) and that means we could have at least 3 days with rain chances.

If the computer models are correct, we could easily have widespread 1-3" rains once again in Kansas. And there will be spots that get a bit more too.

May Precipitation outlook:

It looks WET this month of May. We could have several stretches over the next 4 weeks that bring soaking moisture to the area.

May Temperature outlook:
The increase in rain for this month will lead to several cooler than normal days. Much of the central and northern US is on track to have a cool May. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with mostly 70s (for highs) this month instead of all the 80s that you might expect.

May 9-14 Temperatures: Looks cool across the central and northern Plains. This would lead me to believe we will have several days where highs will be in the 60s. And as long as the ground continues to be so saturated, that will suggest cooler than normal weather will prevail.

May 14-19 rainfall looks like this:
Widespread rains could cover a big swatch of the central Plains. The areas shaded in yellow and red could wind up with at least an inch or two of moisture. And it could be higher in and around thunderstorms.

Late May still looks a bit cool:
Temperatures into the Memorial Day holiday might be cooler than normal. However, normal high temperatures in late May are close to 80, so a below normal temperature forecast would likely mean more 70 degree weather for the Plains.

 So be prepared for a great deal of rain over the next several weeks. We are going to have a VERY green landscape into summer this year. Should be nice as long as we don't get TOO much rain.

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