Tuesday, December 31, 2019

January outlook - are we ready for the cold?

I want to wish you a Happy New Year - and thank you for trusting us another year with forecasts and information that is hopefully helpful to you in your life and line of work.

December has been a warm month!

This month is currently on track to be 15th warmest on record for south central Kansas. Much of the state has had a decent stretch of mild weather and certainly the 60° weather (like on Christmas Day) helped to push us into the top 20. The map below shows the average temperatures for the entire US - and it's been quite warm except in the southwest.

We thought December had a good chance of being warmer than normal, but I'm cautioning you that January, February, and even March look colder (February AND March could be MUCH colder). It won't be an instant flip, but I think in the next 2-4 weeks, we are going to start seeing stronger fronts coming south and more threats of Arctic air.

What's normal:

January should start near to above normal:

Later in the month, we will see if that much colder air farther north continues to push south like we are anticipating. Models are hinting that may happen.

Precipitation: January isn't normally a month where we get very much precipitation. I don't think we will be completely left out of the rain/snow chances, but I also don't see it being a month with above normal moisture. It looks like we have a good chance of ending up "near normal", which for much of the state would be .50-1" for the entire 31 day period. Already our first system of 2020 will arrive Thursday/Friday, but it will have limited amounts of rain/snow with it. The map below is a forecast through January 15th, which shows much of Kansas getting up to .50" (most of which will likely happen with the system coming through Thursday/Friday)

Have a Happy New Year and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

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