Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Two storms - both very different for the Plains

There are two systems that will impact our weather over the next 5 days. Both system will behave differently and neither one of them will stick around for very long.

System #1 - Today/early Thursday:

This isn't a well organized system and the amounts of snow we get from it will be rather light. The snow has started to fall in southwest Kansas and the area will continue to expand into the afternoon. Computer models still suggest that the highest amounts should end up in far western Kansas (close to 3 or 4 inches in spots), but farther east amounts will drop and central/south central should get less than 2 inches. By 8 or 9 a.m. Thursday, clouds and snow depart and we should have some sun by the afternoon.

Here's what else to know about the system:
  • Light north winds - little if any blowing snow
  • No ice accumulations or power outages expected
System #2 - Sunday:
Our temperatures will be milder by the time this low pressure system moves into Kansas. The track of the system will determine where the heaviest rainfall ends up, but this feature has access to some rich moisture. It will likely drop some .50-1" amounts before it departs. (see image below). If the track shifts north (which has been the trend in the last 24 hours), then heavier rains will go through north central and northeast Kansas - or perhaps even farther north.

The rain chances begin Sunday and should be winding down by Sunday evening. Here's what else to expect with the Sunday storm:

  • Fast moving - only around for about 8-12 hours
  • Temperatures Sunday in the 40s and 50s
  • Gusty winds up to 35 mph - should turn to the north Sunday night
  • Any snow chances will be limited to far northwest Kansas (if the track doesn't change)
February ends COLD: Quite the opposite of how it all started. The beginning of the month had very mild weather, but below normal temperatures are on the horizon later next week. It could be a several day stretch of 30s for highs, meaning we will be 15-20° below average. A strong front will move through next Tuesday, and the remaining days of the month will be colder than normal. Although this month of February isn't going to make history in terms of cold, the number of below normal days will certainly outpace the warmer ones.

Has it been that snowy this winter?

The answer is not really. Take a look back at the last 10 seasons of snow and you'll see that there are 6 other years (in just the last 10) that have had more snow than this winter. Several small storms have helped us get to the 6.9", but we still have March coming up and the month is shaping up to be wetter than normal. 

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