I'm still looking at the potential change next week with an abundance of caution, but you might recall that at the beginning of the month, I said late October would be our best hope of moisture. And now that we are moving into that time frame AND seeing what we are seeing, I'm optimistic this may work out for us.
Often times when I post these updates, many of you ask "what model is what". Typically, the GFS and European models get the most attention and the ones we weight most of the forecast details on.
So here's what the European model shows for a jet stream setup later next week:
And a peek of the GFS:
They do have differences - that's why we need to be careful in getting our hopes up. But, what has caught my attention the last few days is that even if the GFS is correct (which doesn't have much rain next week), it IS showing a developing system around Monday, Oct. 26th.
So for the first time in over a month, we are seeing something other than high pressure and no rain. We aren't going to end the drought between now and the end of the month, but we do need something and we need it soon.
As confidence grows, we will start talking about possible amounts, but I think it would be better to wait a few more model runs and see where we are headed.
Orionids Meteor Shower: In the meantime, start thinking about meteor shower viewing. The Orionids are peaking next week and it's one of the better ones to view this year. The moon won't be a factor and if we are fortunate enough to have clear skies (which I think we will for peak viewing), it should be a good show.
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