It's another dry week and we continue to look for signs of a change. It's our longest dry spell all year and if it keeps going much longer, may end up being our longest dry stretch in the last few years. I'll have to do some digging to find out about that for sure.
Here's how October is looking so far in terms of temperatures. The western half of the country has been stuck in summer (at least in Kansas we've had some breaks). If the month ended today, it would be the 7th warmest for Wichita. We've had about a half dozen days with record warmth somewhere in Kansas. Just unbelievable actually.
One factor that is causing this dry weather is the La Nina. It started developing months ago and we are firmly entrenched in that setup now. I will be going into more details about this in the coming weeks as we form our winter outlook, but the jet stream winds have been exhibiting classic La Nina now for weeks. Water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, are colder than average (influencing the pattern across the United States).
When we see La Nina, jet stream winds coming from the northwest are very common. It's not a good setup for rain in the Plains. Frustration with the lack of moisture is at an all time high right now - but hang in there. We knew the first half of October wasn't going to have rain, but we are moving into the part of the month that has shown signs of moisture. Stay tuned.
We are near average first frost dates in many spots. I'm convinced we have a much better chance at a first, fall frost in the next few weeks than we do of getting rain. I'm watching Friday morning (Oct. 16) and again Monday morning (Oct. 19). Probably not a killing freeze, but we are going to be quite chilly.
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