Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on Kansas weather. Recently, we've had three winter systems in four weeks - and now we are gearing up for potentially two more before February comes to a close.
Here's a quick drought recap:
February 3rd
February 10th:
There hasn't been much change in Kansas lately. We've seen a bit of expansion in the "moderate" drought across north central Kansas. Elsewhere, things remain about the same. Really, really dry despite the fact we've had some snow. It just doesn't melt down to enough water to make a huge impact.
The next system comes into the desert Southwest and hooks up with Gulf of Mexico humidity. It's just the right kind of thing you want to see when you are as dry as we are, but if the track of the storm doesn't cooperate, we will be missed. Yet again, lots of variables here that can either go just right, or terribly wrong. Look at the map below and find the lime green to dark green from Missouri south to the Gulf coast.
There's your moisture supply coming this way. It is a little concerning to see most of it shunted off to the east. That's something we will closely consider as the system moves into the area.
The forecast track has been bobbling back and forth. Saturday models runs were WAY too far south and it didn't look promising. Sunday model runs were back north again, looking more like snow for Kansas, but biggest precipitation was still off to the southeast.
Initial moisture:
Likely rain to a rain/snow mix for areas along and southeast of the Turnpike. This will form right along the advancing cold front.
Snow kicks in: Wed. night/Thursday AM
As the main storm kicks into Oklahoma, the chance for snow ramps up for southern Kansas and across most of Oklahoma. This is the track we are closely watching. More times than not, winter storm tracks gradually shift north, but not always. If it could shift 100-200 miles farther north, it would be a huge help in terms of getting more moisture to fall over Kansas. Take a look at the map: 6am Thursday. Notice all that moisture southeast of us? That's why if we can get the track to shift, our likelihood of substantial precipitation would dramatically increase.
We still don't know about snow amounts yet, but if nothing were to change in the models between now and Thursday, southern Kansas would get most of the snow (and whatever rain is to be had too)
Possible 2nd storm later in the month:
We don't know much about it yet, but computer models have suggested another possible wide impact storm may come through our area in the last full week of the month (sometime after President's Day). I point this out because if the storm this week (arriving Feb. 17th) turns out to be a miss or a dud, we have something else to set our sights on before the month is over. And there's still a good mix of warm and cold days yet to come - stay tuned.
Have a terrific day.
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