Winter storm #3 in 4 weeks

This upcoming winter storm has given us a ton of different looks in the computer models. At one point last week, it looked like we might get mainly rain, then some snow on the back side of it all. Now that we are closer to the event, it looks like rain, some ice, and finishing off with snow. Our forecasting accuracy tends to improve once the low pressure system actually forms, and it gets off the ocean. We are better able to sample the system with weather balloons, which in turns makes the models more accurate. However, this storm is throwing a curve ball at us with various models hinting at higher amounts. As a meteorologist, we need to sort through all of it and get you the most reliable forecast. That's what our group has done, and we believe the highest totals will stretch from around Wichita, along and just south of the Turnpike.

Latest snow map:

The precipitation should start as rain and some thunderstorms will be heard mainly in south central and southeast Kansas. It shouldn't take too long to get this all changed over to snow, so in south central Kansas, it is safe to expect liquid, then some brief sleet or some freezing rain, then all snow (by 3 or 4am). Farther west (basically west of Pratt), it's going to be all snow.

Ice accumulation: 

Should be very limited and definitely NOT enough to cause power outages or bring down tree branches. I think if anything, it's more sleet than freezing rain.

9PM Wednesday:

2AM Thursday:

6AM:

9AM:

I think this will be a wetter snow compared to recent storms. Given the temperatures, I think we will be closer to a 10" = 1" of liquid moisture. All in, precipitation amounts could be in the .50"-1" range for the areas that get heavier snow. I wish this could be more widespread, but the storm will end up being just too far south.

Post-President's Day storm:

We hinted at this in the previous blog, but we do expect another system to setup next week. Once again, a low pressure forms in the southwest and looks to eject into the Plains during the middle of the week. It is becoming more evident that whatever moisture we might get with the storm is probably going to be frozen. Cold air takes over Tuesday with a front coming in, so whatever falls is likely going to be snow.  

Have a great day. I know winter is probably getting old, but given all of the 60° days we've had, we can't complain too much. We just need MOISTURE!