Take some time to get ready for a freeze next week. It kind of feels like it's sneaking up on us this year, but as I mentioned the other day, it will be right on schedule for most of Kansas.
How will it compare to the last five years? Just last year, Wichita didn't have a freeze until almost mid-November. However, it was nearly a month sooner in northwest Kansas. A killing freeze should happen Tuesday morning for much of the state. I think we could easily have 3 or 4 hours of temperatures below 32°, so be prepared to cover some plants or just accept the growing season coming to a close for another year.
Here's a snapshot for Monday:
And Tuesday:
Wednesday looks like another frost/freeze:
Rain is what everybody keeps clamoring about - and I hear ya. The new drought map out this week has over 25% of Kansas in an exceptional category, with 57% in extreme. It's bad. Every system that comes our way finds a way to go around us, and it's getting old.
Are we seeing hopeful signs yet?
The first glimmer of hope has started to show in the models. Upper-level winds need to switch to the west or southwest, and we aren't there yet. However, as we move toward the final week of October, it looks like there's a chance for change. Here's the setup by Monday, Oct. 24th. A system could be developing west of the Rockies, but it's still premature to say with any amount of confidence that it will be a large system.
The 8-14 day outlook suggests rain will be coming this way, but I wouldn't say it looks all that heavy. It could still change - this is very much a time of year where the atmosphere is going through plenty of transition, and sometimes the models don't handle that well. Safe to say as we near Halloween, we will have more to watch than we do right now (not sure that is saying much considering how quiet things have been).
Have a great day.
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