When was the drought this bad, or worse? Plus, NOAA's outlook

We've taken several questions this week wanting to know the last time drought was this bad in Kansas. The new map released Thursday has 30% of the state in "exceptional" drought status, with nearly 60% in "extreme". After digging through the map archives, it appears 2012 was the last major drought for the Plains. Here's how the map looked on September 4th, 2012:

The last drought map in 2012 looked like this:

And then July 2nd of 2013 looked like the one below:

We know that breaking a drought in winter is difficult to say the least. Even if you get some decent snow events, the actual water content just isn't what a good 2 or 3 inch rainstorm will provide in spring and summer. However, conditions can improve, so don't be too disheartened when you hear about drought through the winter. A couple of good snowstorms and even some rain mixed in from time to time can help to ease the situation, but safe to say that when we get to spring of 2023, we're still going to have a significant need for water.

Getting out of drought usually takes a LONG time - and I wouldn't expect any different for this go around. It would probably be the worst winter in recent memory to wipe out our current drought - and I don't see that happening this winter.

What do we make of NOAA winter outlook?

This question has also come up since the maps were released on Thursday. It doesn't tell us anything, really. (At least for Kansas anyway). When the map says "equal chances" - it's basically tells us it could be a warmer winter or a colder one. Hmmmm... 

We DO know La Niña continues to be in firm control - which is the colder than average water in the Pacific (near the Equator). Even though it's thousands of miles away, it has a huge influence. We've just experienced one of the driest summers on record - and that's classic La Niña. Unlocking clues for winter takes more effort and digging. We are working on a winter outlook, but we won't have that for another month yet. Several other key pieces to figure out before landing on a forecast for winter, so stay tuned. 

Couple of storms to watch for our last week of October:

The first one coming through on Monday will mainly target central/east. The system drops far enough south to ingest some good Gulf of Mexico moisture, which is what the models were NOT showing early on. However, given the latest trends, parts of eastern Kansas should get in on the 1-2 inches of rain before the system clears the area by Tuesday. 

The second system arriving just before Halloween has potential too. What will be interesting to watch is just how quickly it can recover moisture from the Gulf. Since it follows so quickly on the heels of Mondays system, there may end up being less humidity to work with, resulting in lower rainfall amounts. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.