Thursday, June 1, 2023

June outlook - more rain coming?

May started off pretty typical, but safe to say the end of the month went a little wonky on us in the Plains. The peak of tornado season happens in May and it is usually a month chucked full of severe storm potential. The month started off that way, but quickly died in the last 10-12 days. What happened? 


When the upper-level winds dropped off around the 20th, the severe threat trailed off. We usually expect that to happen in mid-late June, but not in May. And what else is a little strange - where's the Kansas wind? The past few weeks we haven't experienced many (if any) windy days. That's also a direct result of no strong fronts or low-pressure systems coming through the area to crank up the wind. 

The end of May marks the end of meteorological spring. Since there are 12 months and 4 seasons, we can easily divide them up, so March 1-May 31st is considered spring. Wichita and Salina end up with a top ten driest. It's a little strange to see western Kansas with a little more rain than areas farther east, but it happens from time to time. 


Here's a map showing May rainfall and how it compared to average. All of the yellow and orange is at least 1" below, but most of central and eastern Kansas continues to be 2 or 3 inches on the negative side. 

June averages look like this for different locations across the state:

It is the second wettest month on average for most of the area. And our sunrise/sunset times will be at their earliest and latest (respectively) during the latter half of the month. How will the month shape up?

June overall:

Western Kansas may have a "cooler" than average month, but it may not be by very much. Areas farther east, should end up near or slight above average (again, probably by a small margin). As far as moisture is concerned, the overall thought is that western Kansas will be near or slightly above with rainfall, while areas of central and eastern Kansas may be near or below. I don't foresee June being an overly wet month on a large scale. I think some of our best chances on a statewide basis will come in MID-June, with it turning off drier later into the month. I don't know if that's helpful or not, but that's what we are seeing for now.


Have a great day. 

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