More summer thoughts on temperatures and rainfall

Some newer model information just came down with "hints" of what's to come as we move closer to the start of summer (June 21st at 9:57AM). As mentioned in the last few weeks, we are quickly transitioning into El Niño out in the Pacific, and that almost always results in different weather patterns for the Plains. Will it be in place soon enough to keep us from a scorching summer with little to no rain?

If you're interested in how the El Niño looks right now, take a look at this map:

Water temperatures are about .5°C above average near the equator. There's even warmer water just off the coast of South America, and if that keeps pushing westward, which is expected in the coming months, El Nino takes control for fall and the upcoming winter. The overall magnitude of the oncoming El Nino isn't very clear just yet.

If you take the models at face value, we should be able to avoid a summer like last year where there was no rain and several long stretches of big-time heat (highs near or above 100). I would expect drought will continue to ease, but doubt that we'll be able to erase it entirely. Filling lakes and farm ponds will take some good runoff, and I don't think we are close to that just yet. Drought is still so bad in many areas that getting out of this takes more time. 

Here's the preview of July (from the European model):

Rainfall:

Temperatures:

What the weather pattern may look like:

If the upper-level high pressure, which is a common occurrence in summertime, sets up across the desert Southwest, we may get thunderstorms to form off the higher terrain of Colorado and come down into Kansas. While not a guarantee, it's something we didn't see much of last summer and haven't for quite some time. Let's see if that holds up into July. It might be our key to having near normal rainfall - what some of the longer-range models suggest. 

For comparison, here's what the Canadian models have to say about July:

Rainfall:

Temperatures:

And August (from the European model):

And the Canadian model:

Since you're here - potential rainfall through June 15th could be quite beneficial for the Plains. Repeated rounds of storms coming up could leave behind an inch or more for several areas of Kansas. Heaviest may wind up in western Kansas, but even areas farther east could get some nice totals. Most of this may come Saturday (June 10) and again Tuesday (June 13).

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. Let's hope we keep the rain coming and the major heat waves away.