If you read our November outlook, we highlighted the fact that the first half of the month wasn't going to have much moisture. These dry stretches (without even a chance of moisture) have been painfully long, sometimes lasting nearly 45-60 days. They are going to have to get closer together if we are going to make any progress in erasing the damage this drought has done.
In the 2nd week of November - the rain continues to be south. A nice low coming up from Mexico provides the southern Plains with nice moisture. They need it too, but it's tough getting left out.
And it will be WARM! There is no sign of winter in much of the country. Several record highs will once again be threatened, especially across the northern tier of the US.
There will be a nice big trough (low pressure) developing across the western US in the weekend prior to the Thanksgiving week. Will this come at us in waves, or just one big system? We don't have a good answer to that yet, but my expectation is that we will have several waves coming through here. It could be quite active during the holiday week.
Here's another consideration on the rainfall for Thanksgiving week. Much of Kansas has a 40-50% chance of getting at least .50" of moisture BEFORE the holiday. Some of you will say "that's not going to be enough to change anything" - I understand. However, it's more than some areas have had in nearly 40 days. We will update this as we get closer.
While that might intimidate some of you planning holiday travel, it's doubtful there will be much cold air around, so A BIG WINTER STORM APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
I expect a cooler stretch of weather in late November, but it doesn't look like it will be quite as cold as the surge we had in late October leading up to Halloween.
Have a great day.
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