Weekend storm update - more active days to come

Hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday (or had a great holiday, depending on when you read this). There's so much to be grateful for, not the least of which was the most recent round of moisture. I know it's still a bit of a touchy subject given that some just haven't had any good rain at all. Take for example, Goodland. On track to have a top 10 driest falls on record:

Post-Thanksgiving storm:

This is not great for those getting on the roads, but for the farmer with acres of wheat that needs moisture, bring it on, right? What's been interesting is how locked in the computer models have been over the last several days. Sometimes we see significant variations from computer model to computer model, but with this go around, that hasn't been the case. In recent days, model trends have been:

• slightly colder
• higher moisture content
• slightly farther south storm track

None of the variations have really changed our overall thinking about how this will play out. All of this to say, we expect a statewide snow event. Given the temperatures, this will likely be a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means, if you were to get 10 inches of snow, you would expect about 1 inch of liquid moisture. Much of the state could be in the running for .30"-.50" (again this will be melted snow)

Wind - not a huge factor here. Look at western Kansas on Friday where the snow will be falling. Most should have wind speeds under 15. 

And then on Saturday, speeds are nothing to be concerned with:

The moisture content looks healthy but given how quickly it will plow through the region (probably 12 hours of snow), it should keep us from having a major snowstorm. Early thinking on accumulations (storm total, including Friday and Saturday amounts):

What's behind the winter system:

There's no Arctic air coming down into our immediate region, so expect the snow melt to start the next day. The month of November will end with seasonal temperatures (40s and 50s). What will be interesting to watch is just how active things might remain for several weeks to come. It's possible we may have a system trying to come through around Wed/Thu (Nov. 29/30) - so keep that in mind. 

If the system actually comes to reality, the expectation is it would be a rain maker and not one with snow or ice. 

Early December: If you look at the map below, that area of "blue" on the West coast suggests lower pressures. That would likely mean a series of systems would be coming off the Pacific and tracking east. It does NOT guarantee that we will have moisture coming to the Plains, but it does increase the odds a bit. Just as a reminder, some of our most productive weather makers track from southern California to the Plains (while they intercept Gulf of Mexico humidity). 

Some computer models suggest up to .50" of moisture for the central Plains, but maybe not much more. We will have to wait and see, but the overall pattern should remain busy in the coming weeks. 

Thanks for coming by for a few minutes. Have a great day.