A mix of more active and dry weather ahead

We will have another chance of some active weather coming at the end of our second week of March, but that might be short lived before it dries out again. 

The first drought map out in March looks like this (remember it doesn't take into account rain from the recent system). Sadly, we are moving in the wrong direction. We are back up to 59% in drought - which is up from 52% the previous week.

The big system shaping up around March 14/15 will be slow moving, and if we can get this to position in just the right place, it might mean more beneficial rain. The upper low will try to separate from the main flow of air aloft, and if it succeeds in doing that, it will wobble around for many days. That's something to watch for just days from now. As of this writing, the low will form and stall somewhere near the 4 Corners area - that's not a bad spot for it to be, but if it ends up farther west, we are in trouble.

This is a complex scenario because the rain could split and go around Kansas. I just think we should keep expectations low at this stage because a front may shove the higher humidity east of Kansas, and we'd be left with a whole bunch of nothing. We need to see where the upper low will establish itself.

Rainfall compared to average - Ending March 20:

We may hit a drier spell in the 3rd full week of the month, but I wouldn't let this be too alarming considering everything I've look at suggests more moisture should find its way back to the region late in the month.

Early April Rainfall:

Temperatures:

Two different models into late March bring chillier weather back. It's too late in the season for Arctic air (you can breathe a sigh there), but if these maps hold up, I'd prepare for highs in the 40s and low 50s. That's not really earth-shattering, but it might not be what you were hoping for as we know spring begins on March 19th.

Tornado update - as of March 8:

We've had some encounters with brief severe weather in Kansas. As Severe Weather Awareness Week ends, here's a look at the US tornado count compared to "average" and recent years. There's nothing alarming in what we see right now. The current count is the red line and black is normal or average. There's no way to draw conclusions from what we've seen so far to what's next, but we are putting together our severe weather special that airs Saturday, March 16th at 10:35PM. We will try to unlock a few clues as to what we think the upcoming season has in store for the Plains.