First look at eclipse weather - tornado numbers

The total solar eclipse is quickly approaching and just like the last one in August 2017, this one will likely get the same amount of attention. However, if the weather doesn't cooperate, it won't be good for anyone. Travel to the path of totality is just a bit farther for most of us that want to get there, and as soon as we can, we will try and highlight which locations might be the best for viewing. 

Details are still fuzzy since we are a few weeks out, but some of the models out to that date are showing low pressure over the central Plains and to the west. Assuming this is correct, we might have a cloud cover problem around Kansas, but areas near the path of totality could be in better shape. This is preliminary, but initial looks are somewhat concerning for local viewing.

Here's another look at the potential setup for the period leading into April 8th. This would be problematic for anyone wanting to view the eclipse in Texas. Lower pressures in the 4 Corners area could have clouds and precipitation developing in the southern Plains. Don't change plans yet, but we do have potential active weather coming through the region during that time frame.

The umbra (shadow from the moon) is 122 miles wide, and it will be moving at over 1500 mph. It would move even faster if it weren't for the fact the Earth and moon are rotating in the same direction. In the image below, the penumbra (area within the purple ring) will see some part of the eclipse. That's roughly 5100 miles wide (from near Alaska to Panama). It's important to note that at no point (outside of the path of totality) would it be acceptable to look directly at the sun during any portion of the eclipse. 

How will the eclipse look from western Kansas? Here's a preview of how much of the sun will be covered from Goodland's position.

And from Salina:

And Wichita:

Severe weather season is here: Latest tornado tally across the United States shows that the pace is right on target for what you might expect at this point in the season. The red line represents what is happening in 2024, while the black line is considered "average".

As we approach the end of March, the highest probability of tornadoes stretches from Oklahoma/Texas to Georgia. As you might expect, that area spreads west and north as the spring moves forward.

Thanks for reading!