Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Severe weather chances, rain checkup, and it's all about timing!

If you're like me, you are wondering what happened to the month of March. This month was another very dry month. I often wonder how different it will feel and look around here if we ever get back to a steady pattern of rainfall.

Here is the rainfall check for March and for the year.

Wichita: 0.28" / 2.31" below normal  /  2.55" below for 2015
Dodge City: 0.29" / 1.24" below normal  /  1.20" below for 2015
Goodland: 0.11" / 1.24" below normal  /  0.70" below for 2015
Salina: 0.05" / 2.15" below normal  /  2.51" below for 2015

This next cold front coming in tomorrow (Wednesday) will bring some severe storms back to Kansas and Nebraska. The storms will probably start in Nebraska and then move southeast into Kansas closer to sunset. Main threat will be some hail and wind.

Why is it so hard for us to get rain in Kansas? Everything has to come together just right (much like a baking recipe can be messed up if you don't follow it correctly)
Early Wednesday
Wednesday evening
Early Thursday
First, look at the higher humidity that is pushing north into Kansas early Wednesday. Dew point temperatures (measure of the moisture in the air) will climb into the 55-65 range to begin the day. As the cold front moves in Wednesday evening, look at what is happening to the moisture... it's getting shoved east. And when the front is in central Kansas at 3 a.m. Thursday, the moisture is almost entirely over the Flint Hills. This is a real bummer to say the least.

Deep storm in the west will produce some snow in Colorado and cooler weather for Kansas
Another deep low pressure in the west offers up some hope for wet weather middle of next week
We can say the pattern will remain active through the next 8-10 days, but until we get some of the deeper, Gulf moisture to move farther west, we just won't see the soaking rains. It's frustrating... but let's keep watching the extended forecast for signs of hope.

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