Thursday, March 19, 2015

Spring storms return to the forecast

Spring officially begins Friday at 5:45 P.M. and just 2 days later, we will get our first chance for thunderstorms in Kansas. Sometimes, it's amazing how Mother Nature follows the calendar (and other times, she is WAY off the mark)

We are going to have some beautiful weather Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday. Our temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s and we won't have much wind to worry about for the weekend. Forecast models are hinting at storms developing Sunday in northern Kansas after 5 or 6 p.m. They will have a tendency to move southeast into the night. It doesn't appear severe weather is going to be a big problem, but considering the setup and time of year, it certainly can't be ruled out. I would expect a low threat of some wind and hail.

Just a reminder that with the return of severe weather season, there is a new category to tell you about in the storm outlook. In the past, we've worked with slight, moderate, and high. Starting this year, there will be slight, enhanced, moderate, and high. What does all of this mean? I think the easiest way to explain the new outlooks is to think of the categories in terms of storm coverage. For example:
Slight - very isolated
Enhanced - scattered
Moderate - widespread
High - outbreak

Usually, when you see moderate or high, there is a very strong likelihood of damaging storms and tornadoes. 

In tomorrow's blog, does a slow start to severe weather season mean anything for the rest of the spring season? We will look at some stats Friday!

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