Are we in El Nino or La Nina?

Our winter forecast will be revealed on Sunday, November 18th at 10 p.m. and as we get closer to revealing our prediction, I wanted to show you what is going on with El Nino/La Nina. They do play very important roles in making seasonal forecasts.

Just a reminder, the area where we look for El Nino/La Nina is along the Equator and in the Pacific. Look at the map below (click on any image to make it larger):

You'll see the shades of red/orange in the box, indicating the water temperatures are above normal, but not by any huge margin. We are on the verge of a weak El Nino going into winter. What that means for Kansas in just one second. The chart below shows past El Nino and La Ninas (the red are El Nino periods and blue are La Nina - and the year is down the left side) and the last El Nino we had was STRONG. In fact, it was one of the strongest in recorded history.

Forecasts continue to show slow strengthening.

Typically, when we have El Nino winters, they show a tendency for wetter than normal patterns in and around Kansas.

And temperatures aren't usually that cold with an El Nino influence.

However, this El Nino isn't going to be that strong. And not all El Nino patterns are going to be the same. So that's the challenge we are working on as we get closer to the start of winter and releasing our winter forecast. Have a great day.