Friday, October 5, 2018

The wet setup still on track

I hope everyone has a good weekend despite the forecast of very wet weather in some areas of Kansas. Although it might be too much rain for some, this will hopefully catch some areas up that still need the moisture. Of course, farmers are concerned it might was out some of the newly planted wheat. We do have areas of drought still that could be eased with this big batch of moisture coming.

What's taking shape?
As we've been saying throughout the week, what makes this such a wet setup is the fact you have a deep storm forming in the west that's basically stuck there until Tuesday or Wednesday (Oct. 9-10). It will be drawing in Gulf of Mexico moisture that feeds into a stationary front. So there will be several rounds of wet weather coming.

Generally speaking, this is what I'm seeing for rainfall amounts as we continue through the next 4-5 days.
By the end of the day Saturday:

End of the weekend:

Add in Monday and Tuesday, and we could see amounts on the order of 4-6 inches in many spots of central and south central Kansas. 

The month is still early, but rainfall amounts of greater than 5" starts putting us near the top 10 of wettest Octobers. It will be interesting to see how much falls and where the majority of this precipitation ends up.

Temperature Trend Coming:
Next week (2nd full week of October) looks pretty chilly across a LARGE area of the Plains and upper Midwest. We have a good chance of being 10-20 degrees colder than normal, which would mean mostly 50s and some 60s for highs. I do think drier weather is coming, but it will be after we pass the 2nd weekend of the month. October 2018 is off to a pretty active start.

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