Snowfall forecast - how much?

It's Election Day and hopefully you get out and vote (if you haven't done so already). The weather doesn't look that bad today, but some sprinkles or showers will be passing through central and eastern Kansas. 

Alright, on to the snow chance coming Thursday. What's most difficult about forecasting this storm is figuring out when rain will change to snow. If it happens earlier in the day, then expect more snow. If it's a little later, then snowfall amounts could be a little less. Bottom line is that we will have some accumulations and travel (at least in some parts of central and northern Kansas) could be impacted.

How much?

This is what I'm thinking on snowfall accumulation. Heaviest should be across northern Kansas where temperatures are colder longer.

Farther south, rain will cut into the amounts of snow, but generally an inch or two should do it. This snow will have some heavy moisture content, so it could pile up quickly. We will have to watch that.

Timing:

Snow should already be underway by daybreak Thursday in northwest Kansas. The area of light rain and snow will spread south and east during the day. Morning rush hour probably won't be that bad Thursday, but conditions will change during the day. Evening rush will have wet and slushy conditions, especially farther north. 

Arctic air watch:

I'll update you on this Wednesday, but we are closely watching the possibility that Arctic air will slide in here early next week. It may only be early November, but we may have our first bitter cold snap coming soon. Be sure to check back.