Hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving week. We are about to begin the month of December with a chance for some snow, HOWEVER, temperatures aren't going to be all that rough on us just yet.
Snow forecast challenges ahead:
The hardest thing to do ahead of a winter system is pin down where the heaviest accumulations of snow will fall. Every storm presents its own unique challenges, and this one will be no different. The last 4 or 5 days, one model showed snow while another model had nothing at all. We are finally seeing some agreement that snow WILL setup in the Plains, but determining where the storm will wobble around is tough.
Here's what one model shows on accumulation for Wednesday/Thursday:
As you can see, it focuses more of the snow central and east. The amounts aren't huge, and at this time, I would doubt this storm would have anything record setting with it anyway. But what we want to take away from this is where the snow accumulations might be.
Another model has this:
Suggests that much of the snow will end up in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Similarities between the two models are that the amounts of snow are up to about 5 inches but not much more. That is still a pretty good snow for the Plains and given the temperatures, would likely have some good moisture content to it. This is a storm where 10 inches of snow would equal about 1" of liquid precipitation. However, nobody is expected to come close to 10".
No Arctic air invasion!
Don't like winter temperatures? This midweek system will have no Arctic connection. It does get cold enough to snow, but the air that will be in the Plains show no connection to the bitterly cold areas of Canada or the Northwest Territories. What does that mean? It should mean a quick rebound in afternoon highs at the end of the week. Just look at the map for Thursday afternoon. Areas north of Kansas will actually be a bit warmer, so we should warm and melt the snow quickly by Friday and the weekend.
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