Thursday, December 3, 2020

Here comes the December heat wave - before the deep freeze

December is off to an active start with the latest storm now departing the area and leaving some whopping snow behind in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This was definitely the kind of snow to help the winter wheat with it containing some nice moisture. Just look at some of the amounts below:



December is (on average) the snowiest month out of the year for the Wichita area and we have a head start. Northwest Kansas, including Goodland, did have some snow but it was minimal. 

What's coming next is a rather impressive warm spell for the Plains and Rockies. It's interesting in that there will be some storms out there to watch (one settling into Baja California and perhaps another up around the Great Lakes), but Kansas won't see much of an influence for now. That will leave us with our first full week of December being above normal and dry!

However, we are about to see the bitter cold of Canada and the Arctic unleash as we approach mid to late December. We have been keying in with the Arctic Oscillation dropping negative now for several days on several different model runs. And the longer range indicators are suggesting we trend back to near or below normal temperatures as we move toward the second half of December. So be prepared to trade in next weeks 60s for something much colder soon.

As for rain and snow chances - I still think we will be in a position to have some active weather through mid to late December. Some of the computer models are suggesting more storms will develop and move in from the Rockies, which will make for an interesting forecast leading up to Christmas. The hardest part with some of this active weather is that it may develop or just intensify right in our backyard (like the most recent storm), and that will give us some challenges to consider for December week 2 and 3. 

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