Weekend storm shows better potential

After some remarkable warmth in the Plains this week, ingredients are still coming together for a rather significant change in just a matter of days. But will this storm provide much in the way of rain and snow? Computer models at the start of the week weren't all that encouraging, but we are starting to see a shift toward more rain and more snow. However, it still doesn't look like a major winter system.  

Thursday:

 

Still looks dry during the day, although the clouds will be gradually taking over our sky in the afternoon. I don't think we will see much (if any) precipitation until midnight, and it could even be later than that. And it's looking like the storm may separate into a couple different pieces. Look at the models Friday afternoon (image below). You see one area over Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, while a larger area of snow is waiting back to the south and west.

 

 

Friday morning:

6am:

It will already be MUCH colder, but where is it going to be cold enough for snow? That's usually the million dollar question going into an event like this and we will nail it down soon. I'm expecting that areas west of a Pratt to Russell line are going to have a good chance of mainly snow. Farther east, its more likely to be mainly rain. The image below is for early Friday afternoon. The eastern two-thirds will likely still be mainly rain with a few snowflakes mixed in.

Friday evening:

5pm

We will be waiting for the second piece of the storm to move in, and when it gets here, almost all of Kansas will be cold enough for snow. The trends we are seeing is that we may be in for more snowfall Friday night-Saturday, which could leave some accumulation in much of the state. 

Saturday:

This could be a day with light snow and cold temperatures. By this time, the rain/snow line should be well east of Kansas, so what we'd be getting will be all snow. However, will it snow long enough to accumulate? Will there be enough moisture for anything more than flurries? Confidence IS growing there will be accumulations for most of the state, but it still looks rather light. I'll start putting up some numbers (both on air and here) Thursday/Friday.

This is just one in a series of storms trying to move our way. In fact, leading right up to Christmas, there will be more systems pushing this way. Does it translate to a White Christmas? It is still possible, but we are going to need access to more cold air, which has been a struggle lately.