Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Heat wave is still on as smoke fills the air again

Thunderstorms that popped up Monday provided some nice relief from the heat and recent expanding drought. However, in typical fashion, it also frustrates those that didn't get a single drop and are now faced with waiting about another week. Storms were heaviest in Sedgwick, Harvey, McPherson, and Saline counties. You'll see in the sequence of slides below that radar was picking up on some localized 2-3" totals. As is often the case with summer storms, there's very little wind at higher altitudes to push the storms along, so they sit and rain themselves out, usually resulting in some hefty totals and flooding.

 
Smoke may be passing through Kansas... again:
  • The Elbow Creek fire in Oregon has burned over 22,000 acres
  • Dixie fire in Idaho is now at 38,000+ acres
  • Bootleg is now at 409,000+ acres
 All of that smoke is still moving through the northern Rockies and now heading south into the Plains. You will likely see smoky skies for at least a few days, then air quality may improve by Thursday/Friday.
 
Close call on a front - Friday:

It looks like a front may clip parts of north central and eastern Kansas Friday. Even if this front does meander into parts of our area, there is a HUGE high positioned right over the state, likely halting any chance of rain. Under high pressure, the air sinks, and that hinders the potential of getting rain. Some areas may see temperatures drop a bit, but 90% of Kansas will still be in the intense heat.

Weekend shift:

The expectation is that the upper high over Kansas will meander back south and west heading later in the weekend. That's a good start toward getting us some different weather into early August. Notice on the map that as we hit the end of the weekend, the high will be back in northwest Texas, hopefully allowing a front to start sliding through. 

It is just a snapshot in time, but just look at what one model indicates for Sunday afternoon around 3. 

Weakening the high pressure should allow for the rain chances to come back and hopefully there will be more chances for next week. It's premature to say what the aerial coverage might be, but here's a forecast for rainfall for Thursday - Monday (Aug. 2):


Next week won't be as hot. We should be back closer to normal highs (low 90s) for our first full week of the new month. Where has the summer gone?

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