July outlook is here - any major heat for Kansas?

Settling into July and the holiday weekend is here. We've been inundated with news of the heat wave across the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest where the heat was responsible for nearly 80 fatalities. Often overlooked, heat is the number one cause of fatalities from weather events (yes, even tornadoes and hurricanes). We haven't had to worry about it around here thanks to some rain and a different weather pattern.

In 2020, July was near normal with respect to temperatures. There were no major heat waves in Kansas and the number of 100 degree days was limited across the state. On average, the hottest part of the year usually comes in late July. If you get to the end of the month with a map that looks like the one below, we should consider ourselves lucky. 

 

4th of July record book:

July temperature outlook:

There will be some hot stretches before the end of the month. In fact, the end of our first week of July looks rather warm (highs mid to upper 90s possible), but an extended heat wave for Kansas is very UNLIKELY. The large high pressure (or the heat dome) should remain west of us for a good part of the month, and that will keep temperatures from getting out of control around here.

 

My expectation is that we will go through some cooler than average weather as we head into the middle of the month. Just remember, in July with the "average" being about 92 or 93, this will likely mean mid 80s (which may not necessarily be "cool" for some of you)

July rainfall outlook: (near normal - probably NOT a super wet month)

Most of the state would expect 3-4 inches of rain in July and I think that's certainly achievable between now and the end of the month. Most of that will probably come in mid-late July, but as was the case back in June, some areas may get a bunch while other parts of the state remain drier. That's what happens with summer storms. The southern Plains is likely to remain wetter than normal and areas north of Kansas may be a tad wetter than usual.