Just how long will this approaching heat wave last?

When you are staring down a 10 day forecast that has no rain and lots of hot weather, you're probably wondering "well how long is this going to last". Anybody that went through the brutally hot summers of 2011 and 2012 are probably a bit leery when things heat up with no end in sight. However, this summer hasn't been as rough on us as it could be - just ask those living in the northern Rockies and out across the West.

July so far has looked like this:

Big time cool from Chicago down to the southern Plains. The green colors represent average temperatures 5 to 8 below the norm. It is really remarkable how comfortable Kansas has been, especially with the humidity also down for several days in a row.

Much of Kansas has had more 80 days than 90s - south central Kansas (through July 21st) is just out of the top 10 "coolest" Julys on record.

This is next:

Forecast temperatures for the last week of July are HOT! As I mentioned in the last update, the big high pressure in the upper atmosphere that is driving the heat waves (and has mostly been west of Kansas) comes right over us. This means we will have a strong likelihood of hitting 100+. It will also be a herculean effort to get any storms to develop under the high - so for now, don't count on rain to finish off this month.

Does this last into August?

 

I wouldn't expect it to. Most models are showing a break down of the high in the central Plains and retreating westward heading into early August. That's also the time when we will begin to see better rain chances too. At this time, I don't think we are in for big rains in August, but we will have chances starting right at the beginning of the month.