A half-and-half November ahead

Thanks for taking some time to read & get a better understanding of what may be coming in the month of November. We have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving season because we are mostly out of drought and the welcome rains this summer and through the fall have been a real blessing. 

October was a definite split between a LONG stretch of 80s that dominated the first half of the month and some more comfortably cool weather to wrap up the month. Now that the month is in the books, it ranks in the top 15 warmest (falling just out of top 10 for many because of the cooler end of the month).

Could November be another split month (first half warm, second half colder)?

It sure looks that way to me. All indications are the jet stream will remain farther north for the beginning of the month, allowing temperatures to be above average. 

Beginning of November:

The jet stream is likely to remain well north of Kansas through the first 10-12 days of the new month. That means fewer chances for rain and little to no cold air. We will continue to have a series of cold fronts coming through, but they aren't going to have significant impacts on temperatures.

2nd week of November:

Even into the second week of the month, it looks relatively quiet. However, I do think that as we approach the 14th of the month, we will start to see a switch in the main patter. The upper level winds should turn back to the southwest, and that's when the moisture should return.

3rd week of November:

Notice in the image above, the dark blue in the Southwest. That represents low pressure favored there, and with that kind of setup, you would think chances for rain would increase for the Plains. That also shows up in this rainfall forecast for mid-month. The shades of green represent wetter than average conditions, which is suggested for the eastern half of the state.

End of November (including Thanksgiving):

While making a forecast for Thanksgiving Day is tough at the beginning of the month, there's a reasonable chance we will not have anything too extreme (heat or cold) when the holiday arrives. However, the pattern still has low pressure favored in the West, and that could mean some active weather - potential both rain and snow - for late November. 

We should keep an eye on mid-late November because that when most of the models showcase a more active setup for our immediate area.

What's of interest in making a winter forecast - it will be interesting to see how a VERY warm northern Pacific Ocean influences the jet stream into the winter months. It's something we continue to study before releasing our winter forecast later in the month. Of course, we've talked about La Nina before, and you can see that on the map below. The blue colors along the Equator represent the cooler than average water south of Hawaii. We do know that tends to favor a colder winter across the Plains states. While not necessarily strong this winter, it can lead to more persistent shots of cold, Arctic air as we go deeper into winter. 

 Thanks for reading!