An October surprise or just a quiet month

The month of October is here and like the months of March and April, it can be a month with some good ol' Mother Nature surprises. There is a tendency to think the past two months can be a predictor of what this month will have in store, but often times they are not connected. September ends on a dry note, but the month overall was quite wet for much of the state. 

Interestingly enough, the driest part of the state was in the eastern 1/4 of Kansas (opposite of what you might expect)

Let's rundown the October averages - and we're showing snowfall too because it can happen this time of year.

October overall:

It sure looks like the month will lean toward "warmer" than average, but not by a significant margin. The beginning and middle of the month looks quite warm, but what may start to drag the average down are some colder shots of air arriving just prior to Halloween. There's probably a brief cool spell that will hit in the middle of the month too, but I don't look for the month to be that "cold" overall. And I think we're unlikely to have an earlier than normal "freeze" in Kansas, so expect it to take place later in the month rather than at the beginning. 

Rainfall:

I don't think October 2025 is going to necessarily be that wet for the middle of the country, but some of the latest data hints at some rain for northern Kansas and across the corn belt. You might recall last October was very dry, but then it was quickly followed by the wettest Novembers on record for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. It was a top 10 wettest for Salina. It wouldn't be a surprise to have high pressure (or a ridge) favored across the middle of the nation, which would set us up for the warmer weather overall in October. The high pressure ridge also means less rainy days in the upcoming month.

I don't think we will lack for strong cold fronts and storm systems coming in from the West, but I'm not convinced the passing systems will squeeze out much moisture for our area, so I'm looking at a much drier month (compared to September). 

Thanks for reading!