Weird October so far - November signal coming in

This month of October has just been incredibly warm and we are closely watching the records to see if this month will be a top 10 finisher (like 2024). Right now, all of the main reporting stations are in 1st place. 

One of the more interesting stats are the number of 80° days we've had this month. Take a look:

The remainder of the month will cool a tad, but overall, it still looks like near/warmer than average weather between now and Halloween. One of the reasons why our weather is so warm is the persistent "ridge" (or high pressure) that's been locked over the central/southern Plains. 

I continue to glance ahead to try and unlock some clues for November. It sure looks like next month is trending toward wetter than average - perhaps wetter than October (which isn't saying much because we haven't had that much rain this month). Last November was historic for Kansas because it was wet, with most areas achieving at least top 5 wettest. 

It looks like the persistent high that's been over the Plains states will be broken down or will shift away from the middle of the country. That would likely allow for a jet stream out of the north/northwest to deliver the colder air - not surprising in November usually. I'm not sure the models are showcasing just how chilly the upcoming month will be. The image below is what we are looking at behind the scenes, but it could easily be colder. 

We're still watching and waiting on a hard freeze. It may not arrive until early November based on how the pattern is evolving.

Thanks for reading!