Thursday, September 10, 2015

Severe storms possible and big El Nino news coming today

Dawn Christensen - Salina
As we make the transition into fall weather, severe storms can be expected over central and eastern Kansas after 4 or 5 p.m. They will likely develop on a cold front that will push south and usher in MUCH cooler air for the end of the week (and the weekend)

A really nice weekend is coming up for Kansas with highs in the 70s and low humidity through Sunday.

We are expecting to get an update on El Nino today. This is significant for many reasons:
1) Could be the strongest one on record
2) It has a tendency to impact our winter weather
3) May help ease drought in southern California

There is a particular region in the Pacific that is monitored for the development of warmer/cooler than normal water temperatures. I highlighted it on this map, which clearly shows a lot of red gathering along the equator (indicating the warmer than normal water temperatures). The last very strong El Nino we had was back in 1997-98 and some are expecting this one to be as strong, if not stronger.

The biggest challenge for long range forecasting is that the impact from El Nino is not the same every time. We definitely know there are certain tendencies in how the weather pattern sets up, but we don't know the extent of what will be coming our way just yet.

Scientists will be releasing more detailed information on El Nino today, including a prediction on how strong it may get later this fall. Stay tuned.

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