Monday, September 21, 2015

Tropical moisture coming ... but fall weather on hold


courtesy Mike Kvackay - Kenosha Pass (Colorado)
Good Monday morning! The Autumnal Equinox is Wednesday morning just after 3 a.m. We will have roughly equal day and equal night as the sun will be directly overhead at the equator. As we approach the beginning of fall, we have some tropical moisture that will be headed this way. When you hear "tropical", there's a tendency to think we might get some good, soaking rains. However, this system will be weakening as it approaches and with the Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off from the Plains, we won't be seeing any tremendous amounts of rainfall. The best chances will reside over western and northern Kansas, but even in those areas, amounts will likely be under .50"

Forecast model for rainfall amounts through early Friday
The very cool, autumn air is going to be locked up in Canada for awhile. The jet stream has retreated to the north and that will allow for warm, late September temperatures to continue. The forecast heading into next weekend shows lots of 70s and 80s across the midsection of the US. There are some stronger signals that the weather pattern will turn active with better chances for rain and much cooler weather coming at the start of October. Details to come. 


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