Thursday, December 10, 2015

Chance of a White Christmas? Here's a look

We are just a couple weeks of away from Christmas and getting asked almost daily "will we have a White Christmas?" In meteorology, we define a White Christmas as having 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning or it could fall later in the day. The odds are usually against it (only a 10-15% chance any given year), but in the last couple of years, some of us have been lucky enough to have snow around for the holiday.

The number of storms that we will have between now and Christmas (to produce the snow) is now becoming more clear. And it looks like there will be 4 of them. Only two of them have much of a chance of producing our Christmas snow and it's not clear how much it would be.

Storm #1: This weekend
This system will likely produce mainly rain, with some wet snow possible across central and western Kansas. It won't be very cold, so some of the snow will mix with rain even into Sunday.

Storm #2: Tuesday (Dec. 15)
This storm will just clip NW Kansas with a little light snow. Most of the moisture will stretch from the Rockies to the northern Plains. 

Storm #3: Friday (Dec 18th)
This system will have a chance of producing some widespread light snow. It will be much colder across the Plains at the end of next week, so any moisture that falls should be in the form of snow for our area. Some accumulation is possible, but it may not be enough for it to stick around until Christmas. But this system is one to watch.

Storm #4: Early Christmas week
There should be another storm forming at the beginning of Christmas week. Where it goes is still a little uncertain. But this would likely be the last storm coming through before Christmas. Temperatures may be too warm for snow at the beginning of the storm, but it's possible as it moves by that it could produce snow. 

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