Friday, September 27, 2019

An October outlook - snow to begin the month for some

Made it to Friday and we have a weekend coming up that will see some pretty radical changes from one day to the next. Saturday looks like a day with potential storms for some, and even if you aren't getting rain, temperatures look quite cool with clouds. Sunday, however, looks more like summer. The winds crank up and temperatures will shoot into the mid and upper 80s.

Temperatures in September have looked like this - much of the country WARM!!

First change into October - a storm from the northwest!
There is a HUGE buildup of colder air that settles into the northwest part of the US. That's where the snow will be flying this weekend. Just look at what one model is showing for accumulation into Montana and the northern Rockies. There will be some 6-12" amounts (or more) by the end of the weekend.

The Plains - decent chances of rain coming up in the next 10-12 days. 
Even western Kansas may get in on some of this moisture. It may not be enough, but will be nice to have some of the rain forced farther west where drought conditions are recently expanding. "Above average" rain in early October could be anything from .50" on up to 1.5 or 2"

October begins with a cooling trend for areas that have been hot
The chilly air is expected to push east and eventually take a turn to the southeast. So where it's been really warm in September, we should begin to see fall temperatures and it will likely feel pretty good in the coming weeks.

Heading into mid-October:

It looks pretty pleasant with near normal temperatures for much of the central Plains. The cool weather will spread across the upper Midwest and head east. I'm thinking we will have a nice stretch of weather into the middle of the month. Rain chances should continue too. I don't look for monster rains and flooding like we've seen earlier this year (even as recent ago as August), but encouraging signs for places that need moisture.

Second half of October looks WARM again AND potentially dry
Signs are pointing toward some warmer weather moving back to the Plains into the second part of October. I'm not looking at 90s, but it would be expected to have some lower 80s.

I'm probably different than most meteorologists in the plains... October is my favorite month. Watching the transition from summer to winter is really an interesting thing as the jet stream intensifies, our day to day weather can be wildly different. It's really not unusual to have some 40° differences from one area to the next on any given afternoon. Fascinating to me!

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend.

No comments:

Blog History