Winter forecast 2025-26

Whether you like the season or not, winter weather is always a big point of discussion this time of year. Two questions that come up routinely in conversation are "how bad is the winter going to be", or "how much snow are we going to get". It seems like we start getting these questions around state fair time onward. 

These long-range forecasts are difficult, and there's a great deal of analyzing and thought put into what we release, but at the end of the day, nobody has the answers. Still, we do what we can so you have an understanding of what might be ahead in the coming months. 

❄Last Winter:

It was a snowy one for south central Kansas, but other areas of the state just had "average" snow. Most of it didn't arrive until January and February, with almost 0 snow reported in December 2024.

❄This Winter:

It's highly possible the main snow tracks this winter will be farther north (through Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, and the upper Midwest), so although there are some similarities to the setup from last winter, parts of the state will not be as snowy this winter (like Wichita). However, northern Kansas could be snowier this winter compared to last.

Two interesting factors: La Nina in the Pacific (south of Hawaii) and a very warm Gulf of Alaska. This was the case last winter too, but the water off the coast of Alaska is just a bit warmer. I'm starting to think this will favor high pressure in that region, which in turn will force more Arctic air to slide east of the Rockies (pushing down into the US). This could be a routine occurrence throughout the winter.

The La Nina is essentially of the same strength and magnitude as it was last winter.

La Nina also favors colder than average weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Kansas will be on the western fringe of most of it, but there will be some stretches ahead where it stays quite cold for several consecutive days (but not likely weeks on end).

We should have a couple of wet storms coming out of the Southwest between now and March, but when they arrive, it may not be cold enough for snow. It's entirely possible that we'll have a wet winter overall, but it won't all be snow and it may come with just a few stronger low pressure systems.

Every year, each member of the weather team submits a snow prediction. Most of us might have some simple methodology in how we arrive at our numbers, but in the end, it is a forecast and not a guarantee. We do the best we can with what we have and hope that it is helpful in some fashion. And in case you're wondering, there's no prize awarded to the team member who gets closest 😊

Coming soon - colder and more active

Maybe this comes as no surprise when you think about mid-late November, but with Thanksgiving coming up and our winter forecast out soon, we want to highlight some of the stuff we are looking at behind the scenes. After the two-day cold snap that hit Nov. 9/10, it's about to turn colder and stay cold as we hit the end of the month and all of December may be very, very chilly. More about that in a second. 

First, let's focus on what's arriving as we move through the second half of November. A series of systems coming off the West coast will increase the likelihood of wetter than average weather for Kansas. This isn't a particularly wet time of the year, but compared to "average", it certainly looks like rain is ramping up.

There are several systems lined up and ready to move east - different from the beginning of the month when most of the active weather went across the northern US. The "active" weather could include chances for rain and snow, but as always, those specific details get ironed out with time. 

There are several factors we are closely monitoring heading into the start of winter. Lately, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative and remains that way for the remainder of November and into December. That by itself is NOT a promise of an extended period of colder weather, but since we are seeing signs of ridging (or high pressure) setting up west of the Rockies, it could be foretelling of bitter cold cutting across the northern Rockies and draining right down into Kansas.

Definitely want to be ready for much chillier weather as we move into Thanksgiving and beyond. Several factors lining up and many models are now locked in on the colder pattern ahead.

A half-and-half November ahead

Thanks for taking some time to read & get a better understanding of what may be coming in the month of November. We have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving season because we are mostly out of drought and the welcome rains this summer and through the fall have been a real blessing. 

October was a definite split between a LONG stretch of 80s that dominated the first half of the month and some more comfortably cool weather to wrap up the month. Now that the month is in the books, it ranks in the top 15 warmest (falling just out of top 10 for many because of the cooler end of the month).

Could November be another split month (first half warm, second half colder)?

It sure looks that way to me. All indications are the jet stream will remain farther north for the beginning of the month, allowing temperatures to be above average. 

Beginning of November:

The jet stream is likely to remain well north of Kansas through the first 10-12 days of the new month. That means fewer chances for rain and little to no cold air. We will continue to have a series of cold fronts coming through, but they aren't going to have significant impacts on temperatures.

2nd week of November:

Even into the second week of the month, it looks relatively quiet. However, I do think that as we approach the 14th of the month, we will start to see a switch in the main patter. The upper level winds should turn back to the southwest, and that's when the moisture should return.

3rd week of November:

Notice in the image above, the dark blue in the Southwest. That represents low pressure favored there, and with that kind of setup, you would think chances for rain would increase for the Plains. That also shows up in this rainfall forecast for mid-month. The shades of green represent wetter than average conditions, which is suggested for the eastern half of the state.

End of November (including Thanksgiving):

While making a forecast for Thanksgiving Day is tough at the beginning of the month, there's a reasonable chance we will not have anything too extreme (heat or cold) when the holiday arrives. However, the pattern still has low pressure favored in the West, and that could mean some active weather - potential both rain and snow - for late November. 

We should keep an eye on mid-late November because that when most of the models showcase a more active setup for our immediate area.

What's of interest in making a winter forecast - it will be interesting to see how a VERY warm northern Pacific Ocean influences the jet stream into the winter months. It's something we continue to study before releasing our winter forecast later in the month. Of course, we've talked about La Nina before, and you can see that on the map below. The blue colors along the Equator represent the cooler than average water south of Hawaii. We do know that tends to favor a colder winter across the Plains states. While not necessarily strong this winter, it can lead to more persistent shots of cold, Arctic air as we go deeper into winter. 

 Thanks for reading!

Weird October so far - November signal coming in

This month of October has just been incredibly warm and we are closely watching the records to see if this month will be a top 10 finisher (like 2024). Right now, all of the main reporting stations are in 1st place. 

One of the more interesting stats are the number of 80° days we've had this month. Take a look:

The remainder of the month will cool a tad, but overall, it still looks like near/warmer than average weather between now and Halloween. One of the reasons why our weather is so warm is the persistent "ridge" (or high pressure) that's been locked over the central/southern Plains. 

I continue to glance ahead to try and unlock some clues for November. It sure looks like next month is trending toward wetter than average - perhaps wetter than October (which isn't saying much because we haven't had that much rain this month). Last November was historic for Kansas because it was wet, with most areas achieving at least top 5 wettest. 

It looks like the persistent high that's been over the Plains states will be broken down or will shift away from the middle of the country. That would likely allow for a jet stream out of the north/northwest to deliver the colder air - not surprising in November usually. I'm not sure the models are showcasing just how chilly the upcoming month will be. The image below is what we are looking at behind the scenes, but it could easily be colder. 

We're still watching and waiting on a hard freeze. It may not arrive until early November based on how the pattern is evolving.

Thanks for reading!

An October surprise or just a quiet month

The month of October is here and like the months of March and April, it can be a month with some good ol' Mother Nature surprises. There is a tendency to think the past two months can be a predictor of what this month will have in store, but often times they are not connected. September ends on a dry note, but the month overall was quite wet for much of the state. 

Interestingly enough, the driest part of the state was in the eastern 1/4 of Kansas (opposite of what you might expect)

Let's rundown the October averages - and we're showing snowfall too because it can happen this time of year.

October overall:

It sure looks like the month will lean toward "warmer" than average, but not by a significant margin. The beginning and middle of the month looks quite warm, but what may start to drag the average down are some colder shots of air arriving just prior to Halloween. There's probably a brief cool spell that will hit in the middle of the month too, but I don't look for the month to be that "cold" overall. And I think we're unlikely to have an earlier than normal "freeze" in Kansas, so expect it to take place later in the month rather than at the beginning. 

Rainfall:

I don't think October 2025 is going to necessarily be that wet for the middle of the country, but some of the latest data hints at some rain for northern Kansas and across the corn belt. You might recall last October was very dry, but then it was quickly followed by the wettest Novembers on record for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. It was a top 10 wettest for Salina. It wouldn't be a surprise to have high pressure (or a ridge) favored across the middle of the nation, which would set us up for the warmer weather overall in October. The high pressure ridge also means less rainy days in the upcoming month.

I don't think we will lack for strong cold fronts and storm systems coming in from the West, but I'm not convinced the passing systems will squeeze out much moisture for our area, so I'm looking at a much drier month (compared to September). 

Thanks for reading!

Is this rainy pattern going to break?

I'm trying to get some information out to (especially to the farmers) about what we are seeing through the rest of September. This rainy weather is creating concern for the fall crops that have looked so good with timely rains and cooler than normal weather. While the weather has been cooperative, some things need to change, or the good-looking crops could start suffering. 

Bottom line - It's going to be a struggle finding long stretches of dry weather through the remainder of this month. It appears that through the remainder of September, low pressure is favored over the western US, and those systems will keep the central Plains in the running for more rounds of rain/storms.

I'm showing the raw data here, and then I'll wrap it up with the rainfall (compared to average) maps right after that. 

Going into September (week two): Another upper low will make its way into the Rockies, which will bring more unsettled weather to the region. Remember, the areas that are favored for rainy/stormy weather are to the right of the big "L" on the maps below. That's where air rises and tends to lead to precipitation.

September (week three): It's very possible a system from the Pacific Northwest will cut across the Rockies and Plains states yet again increasing the odds for more rain/storms.

End of September: It may be weaker, but low pressure continues to show potential near and just west of Kansas. That could keep at least scattered rain/thunder nearby for late in the month.

In summary, there's reason to believe that the remainder of this month could be difficult to squeeze in much more than 5-7 days of dry weather at a time. I know that's concerning where the fall harvest is about to get started, and then some are concerned about getting next years wheat crop planted. This could be one of those years where everything is going to drag out longer than anyone wants to. Areas that need more rain, this is good news. 

I will say that peeking into early October, high pressure may return to the Plains and the Rockies, which would lead to drier weather. However, it may also turn cooler than average, which would take longer to dry things out if we still have a bunch of muddy fields and standing water. Stay tuned.

Some strange weather into September

September 1st marks the start of meteorological fall and what an introduction to the season. Kansas and many surrounding areas are feeling exceptionally cool compared to average. August proved to be a wet month for much of the state and September may be picking up with that theme as well.

I did want to give a quick update on La Nina and El Nino status. If you've read the blog before, you know we discuss it from time to time because it influences the longer-term temperature and rainfall patterns. Right now, we are not in either one (neutral), but when you look at the maps below, the area monitored is shows small amounts of colder water creeping in. Colder water over an extended period is classified as "La Nina", while warmer is "El Nino". It would appear unlikely that a La Nina is going to show up - we will likely remain "neutral" into winter and spring of 2026.

A look at October:

November:

January:

It's something we'll have to weigh when considering the winter forecast. More about that in a later post. 

September preview:

There's not much summer left in the weeks ahead. I suspect there's a warmer stretch of weather coming up in mid-late September, but not really anything out of the ordinary (most likely more 80s than anything else).

September Temperatures (compared to average):

September Rainfall (compared to average):

I know September is a busy time for farmers to get next year's wheat crop planted. It may be tricky trying to get into the field as the rain may be off and on from week to week. However, there is a chance in mid-late September that some drier days will return. 

Here's the 2nd week of September:

And the 3rd week:

Thanks for reading! Hope to see some of you at the state fair.

August could be an extension of more cool

Humidity aside, anybody else think this summer has been nice? Of course, everyone has a different opinion on what "nice" is for summer, but maybe I'm just thinking about how hot and dry the past several summers have been. The fact that we've been getting timely rains and 100° temperatures have been in check makes me think we've been rewarded for going through drought for the past 4 years. 

Here's the latest 100° count:

I find it quite interesting that even Dallas (of all places) has only had one day with a high temperature hitting 100°. 

When you look at the map below, this is showing us temperatures overall and comparing it to "average". What you'll see is that it hasn't necessarily been cooler than average, but rather just a typical July. 

Again, escaping a long term period of 100s probably leads us to thinking it's been cool, but the stats suggest otherwise. 

On the rainfall side of things, here's a look back at the past 30 days (July 1-30).

 

August Outlook:

The short answer is more of what we've come to expect this summer. Brief periods of hotter than average temperatures and then followed by nice cool downs. The favored spot for the "heat dome" will focused back to the Southwest across New Mexico and Arizona (where it typically sets up this time of year), but it should remain fairly weak.

Meanwhile, a series of small scale systems will come off the higher terrain of Colorado and bring episodes of storms and it already looks like another strong front will arrive in the first 10 days of the new month.

And temperatures look cooler overall:

What do August averages look like? It can be one of our wetter months out of the year and the average highs beginning dropping. You'll see by month's end, our average drops back to the 80s. Fall is fast approaching, but there's still plenty of summer warmth left. 

Thanks for reading!