A half-and-half November ahead

Thanks for taking some time to read & get a better understanding of what may be coming in the month of November. We have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving season because we are mostly out of drought and the welcome rains this summer and through the fall have been a real blessing. 

October was a definite split between a LONG stretch of 80s that dominated the first half of the month and some more comfortably cool weather to wrap up the month. Now that the month is in the books, it ranks in the top 15 warmest (falling just out of top 10 for many because of the cooler end of the month).

Could November be another split month (first half warm, second half colder)?

It sure looks that way to me. All indications are the jet stream will remain farther north for the beginning of the month, allowing temperatures to be above average. 

Beginning of November:

The jet stream is likely to remain well north of Kansas through the first 10-12 days of the new month. That means fewer chances for rain and little to no cold air. We will continue to have a series of cold fronts coming through, but they aren't going to have significant impacts on temperatures.

2nd week of November:

Even into the second week of the month, it looks relatively quiet. However, I do think that as we approach the 14th of the month, we will start to see a switch in the main patter. The upper level winds should turn back to the southwest, and that's when the moisture should return.

3rd week of November:

Notice in the image above, the dark blue in the Southwest. That represents low pressure favored there, and with that kind of setup, you would think chances for rain would increase for the Plains. That also shows up in this rainfall forecast for mid-month. The shades of green represent wetter than average conditions, which is suggested for the eastern half of the state.

End of November (including Thanksgiving):

While making a forecast for Thanksgiving Day is tough at the beginning of the month, there's a reasonable chance we will not have anything too extreme (heat or cold) when the holiday arrives. However, the pattern still has low pressure favored in the West, and that could mean some active weather - potential both rain and snow - for late November. 

We should keep an eye on mid-late November because that when most of the models showcase a more active setup for our immediate area.

What's of interest in making a winter forecast - it will be interesting to see how a VERY warm northern Pacific Ocean influences the jet stream into the winter months. It's something we continue to study before releasing our winter forecast later in the month. Of course, we've talked about La Nina before, and you can see that on the map below. The blue colors along the Equator represent the cooler than average water south of Hawaii. We do know that tends to favor a colder winter across the Plains states. While not necessarily strong this winter, it can lead to more persistent shots of cold, Arctic air as we go deeper into winter. 

 Thanks for reading!

Weird October so far - November signal coming in

This month of October has just been incredibly warm and we are closely watching the records to see if this month will be a top 10 finisher (like 2024). Right now, all of the main reporting stations are in 1st place. 

One of the more interesting stats are the number of 80° days we've had this month. Take a look:

The remainder of the month will cool a tad, but overall, it still looks like near/warmer than average weather between now and Halloween. One of the reasons why our weather is so warm is the persistent "ridge" (or high pressure) that's been locked over the central/southern Plains. 

I continue to glance ahead to try and unlock some clues for November. It sure looks like next month is trending toward wetter than average - perhaps wetter than October (which isn't saying much because we haven't had that much rain this month). Last November was historic for Kansas because it was wet, with most areas achieving at least top 5 wettest. 

It looks like the persistent high that's been over the Plains states will be broken down or will shift away from the middle of the country. That would likely allow for a jet stream out of the north/northwest to deliver the colder air - not surprising in November usually. I'm not sure the models are showcasing just how chilly the upcoming month will be. The image below is what we are looking at behind the scenes, but it could easily be colder. 

We're still watching and waiting on a hard freeze. It may not arrive until early November based on how the pattern is evolving.

Thanks for reading!

An October surprise or just a quiet month

The month of October is here and like the months of March and April, it can be a month with some good ol' Mother Nature surprises. There is a tendency to think the past two months can be a predictor of what this month will have in store, but often times they are not connected. September ends on a dry note, but the month overall was quite wet for much of the state. 

Interestingly enough, the driest part of the state was in the eastern 1/4 of Kansas (opposite of what you might expect)

Let's rundown the October averages - and we're showing snowfall too because it can happen this time of year.

October overall:

It sure looks like the month will lean toward "warmer" than average, but not by a significant margin. The beginning and middle of the month looks quite warm, but what may start to drag the average down are some colder shots of air arriving just prior to Halloween. There's probably a brief cool spell that will hit in the middle of the month too, but I don't look for the month to be that "cold" overall. And I think we're unlikely to have an earlier than normal "freeze" in Kansas, so expect it to take place later in the month rather than at the beginning. 

Rainfall:

I don't think October 2025 is going to necessarily be that wet for the middle of the country, but some of the latest data hints at some rain for northern Kansas and across the corn belt. You might recall last October was very dry, but then it was quickly followed by the wettest Novembers on record for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. It was a top 10 wettest for Salina. It wouldn't be a surprise to have high pressure (or a ridge) favored across the middle of the nation, which would set us up for the warmer weather overall in October. The high pressure ridge also means less rainy days in the upcoming month.

I don't think we will lack for strong cold fronts and storm systems coming in from the West, but I'm not convinced the passing systems will squeeze out much moisture for our area, so I'm looking at a much drier month (compared to September). 

Thanks for reading!