Storm chances return - and a bad winter ahead??

Hope everyone is having a great week so far. Our weather has been relatively quiet so far this week, but we are about to see a few storms tonight/early Thursday and then leftover moisture from Odile will get here Friday night and Saturday. If you missed it last night at 10, I showed the rainfall comparison for different areas of the state. I know some had heavy rains over Labor Day weekend, but the majority of Kansas continues to show precipitation deficits (Wichita down about 3.5" and Salina is almost 4" on the low side)

Yearly rainfall checkup

The moisture from Odile will arrive late Friday night (probably after the high school football games) and should combine with a front coming in from the northwest on Saturday. We definitely don't want the cold front arriving sooner than the tropical moisture, or the heavier rainfall will end up passing us to the south in Oklahoma. Confidence is high we will get some nice rain and storms to start the weekend. 

Forecast Rainfall from Wednesday morning - Sunday morning

Severe weather is unlikely in these situations, but with such rich tropical moisture, heavy rainfall is a strong possibility. The main question is where will the heaviest moisture end up. As we've been showing, the bullseye of rain will likely be across southern Kansas. In those areas, 1-2 inches+ seems very reasonable, but as is usually the case, some will get more and other areas less. 

Fake winter forecast on Facebook and Twitter

Several of you have reached out to our weather staff concerned (or excited) about the winter forecast. This image has created quite the buzz on social media, but we can assure you it's FAKE!! In this day and age, we have to check our sources of information and try not to believe everything we see online. I don't know who posted that forecast, but it's probably the same people that try and convince us some celebrity has died or that the planet Mars is going to be brighter and closer to Earth than the moon. I don't know what the winter will be like yet, but we should have a better idea by early November. So please be patient as we continue to study the evolving fall weather pattern and then we will make a forecast at what could be coming this way for the winter. Have a good one.