Thursday, April 23, 2015

Coming soon - next round of severe storms

Our rounds of severe storms have been showing up about every 5 or 6 days and that's about to happen again with the next storm system coming in from the southwest. It's a complicated setup, as is the case with many severe weather events that we have to forecast. Let's look at what will likely happen for Thursday and Friday.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy or mostly cloudy. Some drizzle is possible for western Kansas at the beginning of the day. The lack of sunshine for most of the area will result in temperatures that struggle to warm into the lower 60s during the afternoon.

Thursday night: Some thunderstorms will develop or move into western Kansas. It's unlikely these storms will be severe because of the very cool temperatures we are forecasting. Any showers or storms will move east/northeast.

Friday: Cloudy in the morning with light rain or some drizzle, especially farther east. Main storm system and dry line (green dashed line) will be running into the some higher humidity. Severe storms may not develop until after 3 or 4 p.m. and once they do, they will have a tendency to move east/northeast.

Questions we have now:
1. Do the low clouds and early a.m. rain impact the severe potential late in the day
2. Will the sun poke through at all before noon
3. Where does the dry line setup heading into the afternoon/evening

Some of the details will get worked out in the computer models today, while others won't be known until Friday morning. This doesn't look like an outbreak of severe storms, but some rough weather is likely east of I-135 before we get to the weekend. Let's hope we get some more rain in places that still desperately need it.

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