Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Severe potential rest of the week

Any severe weather Wednesday will be south
We are looking at more active weather for Kansas during the remainder of the week. Of course, active weather can mean anything from rain showers to tornadoes this time of the year.

Forecast rain for Wednesday evening/early Thursday
Our first chance for rain is coming Wednesday and it definitely looks like the target for rainfall will be along a line from Dodge City to Wichita and areas to the south. The rainfall will be somewhat limited because this is not a big system that we are dealing with and much of what we will see on radar will be scattered.

A much stronger system will be pushing toward Kansas by the end of the week. On Friday, a storm system will emerge from the 4 Corners area and bring widespread storms to the central and southern Plains. We are still 4 days away, so some of the finer details aren't known just yet, but one of the features we are looking at is the orientation of the system. Without going into great detail, a storm that kicks out into the Plains that is positively tilted usually leads to fewer severe storms. But one that shows more of a negative tilt can be a problem. Our computer models have differing ideas on what will happen, so stay tuned as we go through the rest of the week. We will hope for more rain without hail and wind, but this time of the year we usually get some of both (or tornadoes)

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